Grand National Trends

Hindsight tells us every year that it is easy to select the winner of the Grand National, provided that one follows the very basic trends that have established themselves over the years. These trends revolve around five important criteria, namely:

Age
Handicap Rating
Weight
Staying Power
Proven Class

This criteria should be applied to all Grand National runners that make up the final 40 come Grand National Day in 2010.

There are other aspects too that should be considered, such as:

Being specifically trained for the race
Jumping Experience
Trainers and Jockeys

We will take a look at each aspect below

Age

It may surprise many to know that there has not been a single Grand National Winner in the last 68 years who was aged below 8 years old; nor has there been one older than 12 for the last 85 years. Those facts alone tell us that it is essential to look for horses aged between 8-12 and to draw a line through the rest.

The actual peak has tended to be horses aged 9-10, which is borne out by the race facts of the last few years where 10 of the last 13 winners were aged between 9 and 10. Indeed 2009 Grand National winner, Mon Mome was aged 9 and four of the first five home were similarly aged.

Handicap Rating

Despite being a handicap, meaning that all forty Grand National runners, in theory, should cross the line together, only those with some class can realistically win the Grand National. The last 20 Grand Nationals have seen eighteen winners, with a handicap rating of between 136-157, any horse who lines up for the race with handicap lower than this is highly unlikely to succeed. Even 2009 Grand National winner, Mon Mome who was 100/1 in the Grand National odds, had a rating of 148.

Weight

The Grand National is by far and away the toughest proposition a horse will ever have to face, it is therefore an obvious statement that the less weight a horse carries the greater its chance of running well. Since the WW2 only five horses have carried a weight of more than 11st 5lb and two of those were achieved by the legend of Aintree legends, Red Rum.

Horses with some class will have a bigger burden than the rest, but even they with anything more than 11st 5lb will struggle to win the race. Once again using Mon Mone as an example, he carried 11st to victory last year and from the first eight home in the 2009 Grand National only one carried more than this weight.

Staying Power

There will be a number of horses, usually younger ones who will come into the Grand national without the benefit of a long run i.e that is a run of more than 3 miles. These are usually horses of great potential, but rarely will one win over the Aintree four mile course.

The last horse to win the Grand National without running a decent length chase was Gay Trip back in 1970.

Proven Class

Although it happens now and again, it is a general trend that horses that win the Grand National have ran well or even won one of the top Grand National Trial races that are available throughout the season.

It can sometimes occur that these horses may well win one of these trials a couple of years before winning the Grand National, making it important to trace the very recent history of these races.